April in the world，Spring is blooming，Will China’s auto market also have a new beginning?？

The 2019 18th Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition (hereinafter referred to as the "Shanghai Auto Show"), which will be officially opened soon, has the theme of "Creating a Better Life Together"，Cheer up the sluggish auto market。Various car companies bring the latest technologies and products，Accelerating towards "electrification、Networkization、Intelligent、Moving forward in the direction of "sharing" (hereinafter referred to as "four modernizations")。Whether it is a traditional car company or a new car-making force，They are all trying their best to leverage new markets。

China’s auto market has fallen into negative growth for the first time in 28 years since 2018，The first quarter of 2019 still failed to hold the clouds and see the moonlight。Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the National Passenger Transport Association, recently analyzed and pointed out，Passenger car market will improve in April。Currently，Factors such as improved financial conditions and expected increase in infrastructure seabet logininvestment are conducive to market improvement。This year, corporate tax and social security payment burdens will be reduced by approximately 2 trillion yuan，Will gently promote the recovery of the passenger car market。

In Cui Dongshu’s opinion，April 1，The value-added tax adjustment and reduction of 3 points is a major benefit for the manufacturing industry，All manufacturing industries have benefited greatly，Passenger car retail sales in April will therefore improve month-on-month。Currently，Prices in various manufacturing industries are relatively stable，Imported and high-end car manufacturers reduce prices quickly，Conducive to the improvement of the wait-and-see mentality of consumption。However，Cui Dongshu also talked about，The car market is still uncertain，It has been difficult for dealers for more than a year，Therefore, sales channels are relatively cautious，The growth of production and sales in April should be relatively stable。

Automotive analyst Sun Muzi also said in an interview with China Business News reporter，China’s auto market has bottomed out，He is optimistic about the trend of China’s auto market。

Who predicts the warmth of spring river water

First quarter of this year，China’s auto market failed to stop falling。Data released by China Automobile Association on April 12，Passenger car sales in March were 201.90,000 vehicles，The decline narrowed significantly，Decreased by 6 year-on-year.9%，Monthly increase of 65.6%，January to March this year，Passenger car sales 526.30,000 vehicles，12 year-on-year decrease.4% and 13.7%，The decline rate is 3 smaller than that in January and February.8 percentage points。

The data released by the Passenger Transport Association is also displayed，Compared to the year-on-year decrease since the fourth quarter of last year，It has shown a good trend of gradual recovery in recent months，Mum-on-month growth of 48 in March.2%，is the strongest recently。

Although the overall auto market has not recovered significantly，But a few car companies have overcome the cold wave，Be the first to enter the warm spring。Among the top ten car companies in terms of sales volume released by the Passenger Car Association，Almost all fell in February，Only Great Wall Motors bucked the trend and grew，The sales of the top three Volkswagen and SAIC-GM in March were still down，Dongfeng Nissan、Great Wall Motors、Both Guangzhou Automobile Honda and Dongfeng Honda are showing an upward trend。

Currently，The market is fragmenting，The mid- to high-end market situation is relatively optimistic，The pressure on the mid- to low-end is still great。March，The growth rate of luxury cars is 7.5%，Mainstream joint venture brands dropped by 12.3%，Own brand decreased by 15.7%。

Benefit from the upgrade of automobile consumption，Luxury car sales overall are still showing a growth trend，Although the profit is not as high as before due to price reduction and promotion measures。The joint venture brands and independent brands will be hit harder，And obviously differentiated，Some car companies bucked the trend and rose，Especially in the Japanese camp, many car companies have delivered good results。GAC Group, which uses Japanese cars as its main sales force，The first quarter of this year achieves the off-season performance，Cumulative terminal sales reached 49.20,000 vehicles，YoY growth of 6.1%，Among them, GAC Honda and GAC Toyota together contributed more than 70% of sales，Guangqi Honda sales volume in the first quarter was 18.80,000 vehicles，11 year-on-year increase.4%，GAC Toyota sales volume is 16.20,000 vehicles，45 year-on-year increase.6%。March，Monthly sales of GAC Honda’s mid- to seabet apphigh-end sedan Accord series exceed 20,000 units，47% year-on-year increase，83% month-on-month increase；GAC Toyota Camry series sales exceeded 1.60,000 vehicles，210% month-on-month increase。January~March，GAC Group has 2 models with sales exceeding 50,000 units，They are GAC Toyota Ralink series and GAC Honda Accord series。

Realizing growth for Japanese cars，In addition to product cycle and other reasons，Cui Dongshu analyzed and pointed out，This is in line with Guangdong’s previous plan to implement the National VI standards in advance、It is also related to the fact that Japanese car companies switched to National VI models on a large scale earlier to promote consumers’ desire to buy cars。

Independent car companies are under relatively greater pressure。GAC Trumpchi, the independent brand of GAC Group, takes the initiative to destock，Growth has slowed down，Cumulative terminal sales volume from January to March 9.90,000 vehicles，Year-on-year growth of 4.52%。

Facing the drastic changes in the market，GAC Group still targets sales growth of 8% this year。Zeng Qinghong, Chairman of GAC Group, recently spoke in an interview with China Business News and other media at the 2018 annual results conference，The overall market fell sharply in the first quarter this year，GAC Group’s 8% growth target does pose a relatively big challenge，But the group is in funds、Talent、Institutional mechanism、Products and other aspects are ready，14 products will be launched on the market this year and next year，He is confident in the 8% growth target。

Different from Guangzhou Automobile Group, which is supported by joint venture car companies，Geely as the independent sales leader，The challenges are greater。This year，Geely sets sales target at 1.51 million vehicles，Down by 70,000 units compared with last year，This also shows Geely’s concerns about this year’s market。First two months of 2019，Geely Automobile sales volume is 24.20,000 vehicles，Down 9% compared to the same period last year，And the sales volume in March was 12.50,000 vehicles，3% year-on-year growth，49% month-on-month increase，The negative growth situation in the first quarter has not been reversed，But sales have picked up。

Great Wall Motors, also from the independent camp，The situation this year has been relatively optimistic，At Harvard、WEY、Driven by the sales of Great Wall pickup trucks and electric vehicles Euler，Great Wall Motors has achieved year-on-year growth in production and sales for three consecutive months，First quarter of this year，Great Wall Motors’ cumulative sales volume 28.40,000 vehicles，10 year-on-year increase.61%。

In addition，The independent brand BYD is driven by new energy vehicles，Sales in the first quarter increased by 5% year-on-year.2%。Given the confidence in the new Seabetenergy vehicle market，BYD sold 500,000 vehicles last year，Challenging the sales target of 650,000 vehicles this year。On the 28th of last month，BYD launches fuel in one day、DM、9 new models in three EV pure electric matrices，This new car is on the market faster than ever before。

Since March，Not just BYD，Many car companies are intensively launching new cars，Leverage the market through the new car effect。In addition，Including luxury cars、Dozens of joint ventures and independent car companies responded to the national value-added tax adjustment policy，The prices of some models and maintenance parts have been reduced one after another。This wave of new car launches，And a series of preferential measures to reduce the cost of car purchase and use，Brings a lot of room for imagination to the overall auto market sales recovery in April。

Opportunities and dangers of new energy vehicles

Very different from the overall auto market downturn，The new Seabetenergy vehicle market segment has become a pure land undisturbed by this cold wave，Currently maintaining rapid growth。Data display from the Passenger Transport Association，2019 January~March，New energy vehicle wholesale sales 25.40,000 vehicles，117 year-on-year increase.8%。Because the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the first quarter of 2019 were better than expected，The Passenger Car Association has raised its original forecast of sales of new energy vehicles from 1.6 million to 1.7 million this year。

Promoted by market demand and "double points"，Many companies are accelerating the deployment of electrification。This Shanghai Auto Show is the warm-up venue for this year’s battle for new energy vehicles，Not only BYD、Tesla and other car companies that are at the forefront of global new energy sales use their trump card，Mercedes-Benz、The three major luxury car brands Audi and BMW and Volkswagen、Toyota、Future、Nissan、SAIC、GAC、Geely、Traditional car companies such as Great Wall have also introduced blockbuster new energy models,Even the troubled DS brought four new energy models to the Shanghai Auto Show for the first time。In addition，Singularity、Weima、Xpeng、Singularity、Future、Hezhong、sky、AIWAYS、Ideal、Zero run、New car-making forces such as Bojun also gathered at the Shanghai Auto Show。The competition in the new energy vehicle battlefield is unprecedentedly fierce，Enterprises each rely on technology、Battery life、Design and other aspects of efforts。

Although new energy vehicles are on the upward trend，But opportunities do not belong to every company。Especially the 2019 new energy subsidy policy released last month，Significant decline of more than 50%，It is believed by the industry that it will trigger a reshuffle in the field of new energy vehicles。

From the current perspective，BYD, which has been the global sales champion for four consecutive years, occupies a certain first-mover advantage in the new energy field。Recently，The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Announcement on the Average Fuel Consumption of Passenger Car Companies and New Energy Vehicle Points in 2018"，BYD new energy vehicles have the highest positive points，is 49.470,000 points。However，This new energy car company also went through a lot of hardships in the early days，They have all experienced the difficulties faced by the new car-making forces such as parts supply and construction。

Co-founder of BYD、BYD Electronics CEO Wang Nianqiang said in a recent interview with China Business News reporter，BYD’s previous experience in building cars was a narrow escape，In the early stages of car building，To a large extent, it relies on OEM electronic products to make money for its "blood transfusion"，The self-sufficient vertical supply chain model was forced out，It was difficult to find suitable parts suppliers due to the small scale in the early stage。

Now，BYD’s automobile sector has grown rapidly，2018，BYD’s operating revenue from automobiles and related products is approximately 76 billion yuan，Electronic sector revenue is 410.500 million yuan ranks second，Although it is not as good as the automobile sector in terms of revenue，But still developing collaboratively。BYD Electronics’ business is in addition to developing consumer electronics，Also accelerating automotive intelligent systems、Internet of Things、The development of artificial intelligence and other fields。Wang Nianqiang said，With the advent of the 5G era，Will usher in better development opportunities，Next 5~10 years，BYD Electronics in mobile phones and laptops、New smart products、Three major business areas of automotive intelligent seabet appsystems，Both are expected to exceed the scale of 100 billion。

Now，BYD’s annual investment in R&D accounts for about 4% of its revenue，About 4 billion yuan。In the face of the accelerated decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles and more intense market competition，BYD speeds up the battery、Car、Integration in electronics and other fields，is further strengthening research and development、Improve product competitiveness、Accelerate the launch of new models and other measures to defend the competition and cope with the arrival of the subsidy-free era。

Currently，Car companies have increased their investment in the "four modernizations"，In 2017, GAC began to take the lead in investing 45 billion yuan to create the GAC Zhilian New Energy Vehicle Industrial Park，Geely has invested more than 30 billion in the new energy field。

Sun Muzi thinks，Currently, traditional car companies still have the advantage in the new energy field。Benefit from the technology accumulated in the field of fuel vehicles、Talent、Funds, etc.，Nissan、Geely、Guangzhou Automobile and other car companies are developing faster than expected in the new energy field，Audi、Mercedes-Benz and others will also put into production exciting electric vehicles。As for the new car-making forces，The pressure is quite high at the moment，Encountered various problems in the early stages of car building，Singularity、There are opportunities and risks for new car-making forces such as WM Motor and Xiaopeng。Future，Among hundreds of new car-making forces，It is estimated that 3 to 5 families will survive the waves。

“The new Seabetenergy vehicle market will continue to grow。China’s overall auto market is gradually coming out of its trough，Sales are expected to turn positive in the second quarter of this year，The fourth quarter will have a good performance。After in-depth adjustments since last year，China’s auto market is entering an upward cycle until 2021。" Sun Muzi analyzed and pointed out，The manufacturing industry is developing for the better，The economy has improved，Consumers gradually regain confidence，Start to dare to consume again，And the VAT dropped by three points，Give car companies room to reduce prices，This round of price cuts will stimulate car buying and consumption。In addition，Many car owners have used their cars for ten or eight years，Will enter the peak redemption period，These factors will promote the recovery of the auto market。